Demand forecast
Forecast demand, order revenue, and sales revenue with confidence intervals based on historical data.
The demand forecast dashboard uses historical data to project future demand in units, order revenue, and sales revenue. Each forecast includes a confidence interval so you can see the range of likely outcomes alongside the point estimate.
Why demand forecast matters
- Data-driven planning: base production and purchasing decisions on statistical projections rather than gut feel
- Confidence intervals: see the range of likely outcomes, not just a single number, so you can plan for best and worst cases
- Current month tracking: a progress card shows how the current month is pacing against the forecast in real time
- Flexible horizon: adjust how many months of history are used and how far ahead the forecast extends
What you'll see
Current month progress
When data is available, a progress card at the top of the page shows how the current month is tracking:
| Metric | What it shows |
|---|---|
| Demand | Current month pace in units, actual to-date, forecast, and variance percentage |
| Orders | Current month revenue pace, actual to-date, forecast, and variance percentage |
| Sales | Current month revenue pace, actual to-date, forecast, and variance percentage |
Each metric includes a trending indicator (up or down) with color coding: green when pacing ahead of forecast, red when behind.
Aggregated monthly demand chart
A line chart showing historical demand in units (solid line) and forecast demand (dashed line). A shaded band around the forecast line represents the 68% confidence interval (one standard deviation).
Aggregated monthly orders chart
A line chart showing historical order revenue and forecast order revenue with confidence intervals, formatted in currency.
Aggregated monthly sales chart
A line chart showing historical sales revenue (by invoice/shipment date) and forecast sales revenue with confidence intervals, formatted in currency.
Filters
| Field | What it does |
|---|---|
| History (months) | Number of historical months used to build the forecast (default 24, range 24 to 520) |
| Products | Limits data to selected products (searchable by SKU and description) |
| Product lines | Limits data to selected product lines |
| Forecast horizon (months) | How many months ahead to forecast (default 6, range 6 to 52) |
How the forecast works
The forecast uses a Seasonal Exponential Moving Average (EMA) model. The confidence interval represents one standard deviation from the forecast, meaning roughly 68% of actual outcomes are expected to fall within the shaded band. When multiple products or product lines are selected, values are aggregated (summed) across the selection.
Next: Sales targets